| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 管理學院碩士在職專班管理科學組 === 96 === With the breaking-through of touch screen technology by Apple Company, touch screen becomes the focus of TFT industry and is now widely rolling out in the market of smart phone. However, key technology and patents of critical raw material of tough screens(ITO film) is still mastered by Japanese Companies. The only opportunity for Taiwan’s touch screen upstream manufacturing companies is in ITO glass. Through strategically production planning and controlling, stock can be reduced dramatically. One of the imperative production controlling is yield forecast. With accurate yield forecast, master production planning and material requirement planning can be conducted efficiently.
Forecasting model of time serial method can be divided into two types: qualitative method and quantitative method. In this research, quantitative method is chosen as researching method and Moving Averages, Exponential Smoothing and Techniques for Trend are used as forecasting models. Mean Absolute Deviation and Mean Absolute Percent Error are used as evaluation methods to measure the performance of yield forecasting models.
Using historical yield data of company A as the input of 4 forecasting models, Techniques for Trend is proofed as the best model for predicting manufacturing yield, meanwhile, fixed yield method is the worse. The evaluation result MAPE of Techniques for Trend model is all less than 10%. According to Lewis‘s forecasting accuracy category, it is in high accuracy level. Through measuring the deviation of yield forecast in company A, Techniques for trend is proofed to be better than the other forecasting models. The results obtained in this research may not represent all the companies in the industry but could be an important input of ITO glass industry.
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