Based on Internet Platform on Convergence for Expert Opinions of Technology Foresight

• Main Authors: Tsai-Hua KANG, 康才華
• Other Authors: Benjamin J. Yuan
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2008
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/zpw5q6

博士 === 國立交通大學 === 科技管理研究所 === 96 === The main contribution of this study is the establishment of a real-time Delphi online platform for technology foresight, which is suitable for closed synchronized/unsynchronized technology foresight, reduces the needed time and cost, and allows experts in different regions to work together. Facing the globalization of economy, many advanced nations recognize the important influence of technology, information and knowledge on industrial competitiveness and are implementing technology policies in order to maintain competitive by introducing new technologies and industrial upgrades. The development of technology, however, is not entirely determined by technological trends, and the political, economical, and social influences in different societies will shape different outcomes. In order to address the blind-spot in technology foresight, the concepts of technology foresight and research foresight have started to replace technology forecasting since mid-1980s and have been widely used in different countries’ decision-making processes of technology-related policies. Technology foresight does not just involve predicting the future possible situations of a certain issue but also choosing and focusing on a most appropriate scenario out of a number of possibilities. “What is the return rate of investing in Electronic Commerce?” “Are you insane? This is like Columbus discovering the New World!” Just like the analogy given by the ex-president of Intel, Andy Grove, e-commerce has made huge changes to our generation and is spreading throughout the world as the internet population is growing rapidly. The internet population in Taiwan is about 15.23 million; 12.4 million have broadband internet connections, 74.89% of the households (5.51 million) have access to the internet and 67.03% of the households (4.93 million) have broadband connections. This indicates that Taiwan’s internet development is very advanced and is appropriate for the internet-based technology forecast system, which is currently being developed actively by nations such as the U.S., Finland, and Japan. In this study, we look at the current global status and trend of technology foresight, analyze the development of Group Decision Support System and how it is utilized in technology foresight, determine the stakeholders to participate in technology foresight from global cases, analyze and determine whether the methods used in global technology foresight is appropriate for the internet, establish a real-time, online Delphi platform, and confirm its feasibility through synchronized and unsynchronized technology foresight cases.