| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 都市計劃學系碩博士班 === 96 === Over the years construction of the domestic major transportation infrastructures has reflected the increase of transportation demand in taiwan. The major transportation infrastructures include the Zhongshan freeway, the Second freeway, the BeiYi expressway, the High-speed railroad and Mass Rapid Transit and so on, when they were carried on, the transportation demand forecasts were made for main decision-making base. However, most of them are overestimated or underestimated seriously, which have caused social burden.
Therefore, firstly this research reviews approaches and cases related to transportation demand forecast models implemented in Taiwan. Secondly, this research collects all the planning report of the domestic major transportation infrastructures then checks forecast data with actual data as post-appraisal. Finally, the critical elements of producing an accurate transportation demand forecast are discussed.
Two main suggestions are as follows. From the standpoint of data, this study suggests promoting standard traffic zoning, unifying freight classification, establishing the data bank of socioeconomic data, O-D data, traffic volume and passenger traffic, as well as establishing the data bank of transportation demand models. From the standpoint of system, this study suggests realizing the standard operational procedure of transportation demand forecast and the evaluation system in consultant firms, promoting the transportation technician licensing system, offering standardized forecast data and forms, and establishing post-appraisal system of transportation demand forecast.
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