| Summary: | 博士 === 國立中興大學 === 應用經濟學系所 === 96 === Tourism exports, which arisen through the rapid expansion of international tourism, have become an important sector in many countries as a growing source of foreign exchange earnings (Lim, 1997). Due to high growth rates of income in developed and newly industrialized countries, and the decrease in real transportation costs between countries, the growth in demand for international tourism around the world over past two decades results in a growing interest in tourism demand research (Song and Li, 2008). However, although modelling international tourism demand attracts great interest, Song and Li (2008) detected that the USA, UK, and France are the most popular researched countries as both destination and origin countries, while Asian countries gain relatively little attention.
In Asian countries, both outbound and inbound tourism perform well with rapid and stable growth. First, as to Asian inbound tourism, UNWTO (2007) showed that international tourist arrivals to Asian destinations grew by 7% a year since 2000, a rate that doubles that of the world (3.5%). Second, with respect to the outbound tourism, because of the economic growth of the region, shifting demographic and social trends, outbound tourism from Asia and Pacific increased on average by 6% a year during the last 10 years (UNWTO, 2007). Given the Asian international tourism markets with fast and stable growth and promising future as the UNWTO predicts, it is important to model international tourism demand in Asia countries. Furthermore, whale-watching tourism, one of the fastest growing tourism industries worldwide, its demand modelling has not been quantified by any mathematical approach. In addition, because of the urgent need to investigate the conflicting activities between whaling and whale-watching, modelling global whale-watching demand becomes one of important area in tourism research. There are three essays included in this dissertation to implement crisis analysis of infectious diseases to Asian tourism, investigate the substitution and complementary relationships between Asian destinations and model global whale-watching tourism demand.
In past few years, Asian international tourism industries were significantly affected by two infectious diseases, SARS and Avian Flu. Comparing the post-crisis analysis of SARS with the pre-crisis analysis of Avian Flu can form a strategic framework to combat the transmissible diseases, so that, the purpose of the first essay is to assess the impacts of these two infectious diseases on international tourism demand in Asia countries. To estimate the impacts of these two infectious diseases on international tourism demand, an autoregressive moving average model together with an exogenous variables (ARMAX) model are used to estimate the effects of these diseases in each SARS- and Avian Flu-infected country, while a dynamic panel data model is adopted to estimate the average impact on Asian infected countries for these two diseases respectively. The results from both approaches are consistent and indicate that the numbers of affected cases have a significant impact on SARS-affected countries but not on Avian Flu-affected countries.
The second essay is to investigate the tourism expenditure allocation of Japanese international tourism in five Asian destinations, China, Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. In the field of modelling international tourism demand, the US and Europe, as traditional international tourism markets, attracted most attention in previous studies. On the contrary, little attention has been paid to examine the substitution and complementary relationships between Asian countries. Given the position of Japan as a leading generator of international tourism in the world, and Japan is the major tourist-source market in several Asian countries, the market share analysis of Japanese outbound tourism can provide useful knowledge for these major destination countries. Therefore, the major purpose of this essay is to estimate Japanese tourism demand and investigate the determinants of each destination’s share for the group of Asian destinations by using both static and dynamic forms of linear approximation almost ideal demand system (LA/AIDS) models. The results from both static and dynamic approaches indicate that the changes in market shares of the Japanese tourism demand are significantly influenced by the changes in relative prices rather than in tourists’ expenditure.
Whale-watching, which can be defined as at least some commercial aspects, to see, swim with, and/or listen to any of the some 83 species of whales, dolphins and porpoises(Hoyt, 1995, 2001). Since the International Whaling Commission (IWC) moratorium on commercial whaling was enacted in 1986, whale-watching becomes one of the fastest growing tourism industries worldwide throughout the 1990s. Because whaling was regarded as an incompatible activity with whale-watching, the possible resumption of commercial whaling caused the urgent need to investigate the potential effect of whaling might have on whale-watching industry. The purpose of final essay is to investigate determinants of the whale-watching demand and examine the potential impacts of whaling on global whale-watching industry using random effect models on unbalanced panel data. The results show that significantly negative influences of whaling on whale-watching tourism demand were induced by the reduction of minke whales available for watching and negative attitudes of whale watchers towards whaling.
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