The Research on Real Value of Enterprises --The Fuzzy Real Option Model

• Main Authors: Chien,Chia Hwa, 錢家驊
• Other Authors: 胡聯國
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2008
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/66073700417460825095

碩士 === 國立政治大學 === 國際經營與貿易研究所 === 96 === In this study, we use the real option model from Schwartz and Moon (2000) as the basis, and then combine it with fuzzy theory to create Fuzzy Real Option Model. This study takes one company in solar power industry － E-TON as the sample company to conduct the parameter estimation. We also adopt the Monte Carlo Simulation method to assess the reasonable value of E-TON. After the sensitivity analysis, the results show that initial rate of growth in revenues and cost are the most important factors which influenced on the value of a company. Furthermore, we apply this model to other companies in electronics industry and discover that the stock prices are often overvalued or undervalued by the market. Therefore, we develop a set of investment strategies for people who want to make profits from the difference of prices. The result of strategic simulation shows that profit is apparently better than the way of buying and holding, and it proves the practicability of this model as well.