The Probability predictive model of housing investors

• Main Authors: Chiou,Yu Shiou, 邱于修
• Other Authors: 張金鶚
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/12895668044909220045

碩士 === 國立政治大學 === 地政研究所 === 96 === Housing is dual function goods, consumption and investment, so if we separate the home buyers by their motives, they can be defined as two groups, owner-occupiers and investors. Recently, because the housing market is vigorous inland and the rates are fairly low, there are more and more home buyers buying houses for investment. To financial institutions, their payment behaviors are more instable, compare to owner-occupiers. So this article is aim to build a probability predictive model of housing investors by discussing the different home buying characters between owner-occupiers and investors. Therefore we can provide financing institutions a more objective method evaluating if they should lend money to the home buyers. Then we discuss the predictive accuracy with different cutoff points, finding the cutoff point with highest predictive accuracy, therefore we can elevate the model`s predictive accuracy. Besides, we also discuss the most optimal cutoff point for financial institutions under different administration principles.