Predicting the Fluctuation of Taiwan

• Main Authors: HO, JOU-CHIN, 何柔靚
• Other Authors: Edward H. Wang.
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2008
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/53244495796732253895

碩士 === 明新科技大學 === 營建工程與管理研究所 === 96 === The Construction Cost Index, CCI is an important indication of industry development. It also reflects the fluctuation of local manpower, machines, and material prices. The contractual cost adjustment due to inflation is also quantified based on the CCI. The decisive factors of CCI are countless. However, the moving trend of the CCI leads the government to prepare a proper budget; it guides the consulting engineers and architects to calculate a precise cost estimate of the bottom baseline of a construction project; it facilitates contractors to secure a winning proposal at the bidding stage. This research starts with introducing the content of the Taiwanese Construction Price Index and move on to the detail analyses of the historic CCI data available online. The aim of the research focuses on the prediction of the future growth using the Grey Theory. The monthly CCI data used in the research ranging from January 1991 to December 2007 was adopted from the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan. A Grey Model was constructed to provide a describing tool in CCI fluctuation. The result based on the model prediction is also compared with other researchers. The characteristics of the Grey Theory as well as other predicting methods are studied. Finally, a relative low-tech, low cost and ease to use spreadsheet program is offered for the industry in estimating various items in the construction project implementing the Grey Theory.