Establishing A Defense Budget Forecast Model By Using Back Propagation Network Diagnostics

• Main Authors: Chen Chi Han, 陳企漢
• Other Authors: 梁榮輝
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2008
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/19583342641123322176

碩士 === 佛光大學 === 經濟學系 === 96 === Defense budget is the foundation to the development of national defense. Nevertheless, defense budget has very little room to grow due to the restriction of resource distribution. In recent years, government financial deficit increases while economical growth slows down. Meanwhile, government focus leans towards social service and education; hence, defense budget makes up less and less proportion within government total budget. Under the limited resources, effective budget forecast not only help to maintain defense strength of country, but also in the pre-planning of various strategic schemes so that maximum defense capability can be achieved with minimal resources available. This research utilizes "Back-Propagation Network" method, analyzing the data of 10 types of economic indicators from 1983 to 2007. In hope of establishing a defense budget forecast model. The result suggests that back-propagation network diagnostics is an useful and effective tool in establishing a defense budget forecast model.