| Summary: | 碩士 === 中原大學 === 國際貿易研究所 === 96 === Unlike the traditional investments in saving and real state, stock markets have become an important investment tool among all the local people in Taiwan. In recent years, however, the domestic financial environment has changed a great deal that put a lot of challenges on the investment trust industry. To understand the macroeconomic advantages and to choose best investment strategies have become not only the management goals but also common concerns of ordinary investors. The discussions among mutual funds and macroeconomic factors are always one of subjects for the academic research. Mutual fund is relied heavily on the professional knowledge of fund managers as well as macroeconomic situation. The purpose of this study is to understand the macroeconomics on net value of mutual funds in Taiwan. This study tries to understand the investment performance under different macroeconomic environment.
This study attempts to reveal the relationships between the macro economic variables and the net asset value of the mutual funds in Taiwan. This study incorporate the monthly data of several economic variables of the national input, national export, consumer product index, inflation rate, exchange rate, money supply, aggregate equity market between 2003 and 2007, and tries to reveal the relative influence of these variables on the net asset values of selected mutual fund families. This study applied the regression analyses and tried to predict the chosen variables on the mutual fund net asset values, both enter and stepwise regression analysis were applied in the study and make comparison. The results showed that certain variables like the Taiwan stock price index, Consumer Confidence Index, annual growth Rate of M1b interest rate, nominal interest rate of Taiwan bank, and oil price of OPEC have influenced in the net asset value movement in the considered period, while the other variables have negative impact on the net asset value of mutual fund.
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