| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立雲林科技大學 === 財務金融系碩士班 === 95 === Return rating and Sharpe index, which consider risk and return in the same time, are the most popular method on mutual fund performance measures. However, mutual fund performances do not have constancy. The Sharpe index rating and return rating are only history and can not represent the future.
This research studied the causal relations among mutual funds and stock indexes. Looking at the stock index projection can have a feeling of mutual future performance. Investors can use the stock index projection to help the mutual investment decisions.
It is found, during January 3, 2000 to October 9, 2002 bear market era, High Technology mutual fund performance followed the Dow John Industrial Index. When predicting the Dow index will decrease, investors can ask the mutual fund to buy back High Technology mutual fund to avoid losses. During the bull era, from October 9, 2002 to May 24, 2006, the Capital Growth fund followed the Dow index and NASDAQ index. Investors can buy in Capital Growth fund when predicting the stock index will increase and ask the mutual fund company to buy back when a the index is projected low.
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