| Summary: | 碩士 === 亞洲大學 === 休閒與遊憩管理學系碩士班 === 95 === The research is analyzed the demand system of Taiwanese outbound tourism in Asia. To focus on establishing a Taiwanese outbound Asia tourism demand system model taking into account seasonal variation effects. The settings of the model will be adjusted according to the verification obtained from documentary evidence. The seasonal variation effects, economic and environmental factors lead to an inverse demand function and demand system restrictions. The research seeks to obtain Taiwanese outbound Asia tourism and an intersecting price flexibility coefficient.
This research plans to make use of the constant elasticity demand system as the basis, and with indirect setting effectiveness functions, passing through first-order differential approximation leading to the demand system. Within the demand system, add seasonal, Asian economic crisis, and SARS variation regulatory items. At the same time add every parameter that has restrictive requirements to the seasonal variation requirements. Adopt seeming unrelated regression estimation for Taiwanese outbound tourism demand system. From the results obtained above and the out of season variation demand system, pass through RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and Theil’s inequality coefficient, and carry out a comparison of model simulation capabilities.
The end result shows that in the own-price elasticity aspect, five travel countries all appear negative. Cross elasticity aspect, Singapore and Japan, Malaysia and Hong Kong are substitution effect. Thailand and Malaysia are substitution effect, too. No complement effect in each other countries. Japan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore are the normal goods of travel expenditure, and Thailand is inferior goods. Than the added seasonal dummy effects demand system fit data better than traditional demand system. In other words, it can be said that seasonal variation effects is existed.
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