Research on The Relationship between Term Structure of Interest Rate and Real Economic Activities

• Main Authors: Yu-Cheng Huang, 黃昱程
• Other Authors: A. T. Hsieh
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2007
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/05607553956432293310

博士 === 中國文化大學 === 國際企業管理研究所 === 95 === The issue in this research is to discuss on the relationship between term structure of interest rate and real economic activities. Through relevant documents and logical analysis, it is discovered that the said relationship needs further clarification. This research is divided into three subjects: A. to examine whether there is a asymmetry relationship between term structure of interest rate and real economic activi-ties. B. to discuss on the ability to make forecasts through term structure of interest rate on real economic activities, taking small open economic entities as examples and com-paring with advanced countries. C. to discuss on the interactive relationship among term structure of interest rate, real economic activities and monetary policy. Main research data originates from the international financial statistics data bank of the International Monetary Fund. Samples are composed by quarterly data, beginning from the first quarter of 1970 to the first quarter of 2006, with 141 numerical sets for observation purposes. The main results and discoveries of this research are mainly in the following three areas: A. There exists a non-linear and asymmetry relationship between the spread be-tween long-term and short-term interest rates and real GDP growth rates for the next 9 months and next 12 months. B. Using the spread between long-term and short-term in-terest rates to forecast future real GDP in the small open economic entities such as the four little dragons has seen not much effect, but when it is applied to G7 countries, ex-cluding Japan and Italy, the forecast is with rather good results. C. The short-term in-fluence of the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates on real GDP is not so obvious. Over a period of time the impact of the said spread in interest rates will ob-viously and steadily affect real GDP. The short-term interaction between the central bank monetary policy and real GDP is not obvious. But on the long term the said policy will trigger a steady reaction on the positive side. The impact of the said spread on the discount rate is adverse in nature.