| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 國際財務金融碩士在職專班 === 95 === The floating-price mechanism of gasoline was officially implemented in Taiwan in 2007 to improve the irrational phenomena of domestic gasoline price off track with international crude oil prices. Chinese Petroleum Corporation （CPC） adjusts the gasoline price by referencing to the fluctuant range of West Texas Crude Oil Price every week in order to maintain reasonable profit as a goal, whereas the domestic Gas （Liquefied Natural Gas, LNG） price is adjusted based on monthly review mechanism taking into consideration of imported cost.
There have been a lot of empirical researches made by many domestic and foreign scholars in the correlation between oil price and overall economy. However, the studies in reasonable profit of power price for Independent Power Producer （IPP） that calculated on the basis of the floating price of LNG have been quite lacking. However, the current power selling price of IPP is based on the front year average heat value cost of Taipower LNG plant as the selling price for the next year. In the environment when the time of LNG prices escalating day by day, the inability of LNG price reflecting instantly in the power price bound to create tremendous pressure to the operation of power companies. Such is an extremely irrational phenomena, hence the motive of this study.
This research is based on the monthly data of A IPP during the period from April 2004 to December 2006, a total period of 33 months. First, the SAS software is used to perform all kinds of statistical analysis. The results are finally compared with the empirical results of the scenario-simulation analysis approach to verify the profitable pricing method of power. The unreasonable phenomena based on the LNG price purchased a year ago could indeed by corrected. Below is the result obtained through empirical analysis:
I. Empirical result of the statistical analysis approach:
1. Use the Pearson correlation coefficient of the SAS software to test whether there is correlation between the actual power price and the domestic LNG price. The result shows both related coefficients are all 0.7308 and P＜0.001, indicating both have significant standards. In other words, power price is significantly affected by the rise and fall of the LNG price. And the cross correlation analysis is used to consider whether the power price is adjusted lagging the LNG price. The result shows that the influence of adjustment after two months is the most significant.
2. In addition, the multiple regression analysis is adopted to explore whether the three independent variables including the actual power price, international oil price, and the domestic LNG price are significantly affecting the 9 dependent variables. The result indicates there is significant standard to 8 dependent variables except there is no significant standard to the total selling power quantity.
II. Empirical result of the scenario analysis approach:
1. Simulation of power price adjustment follows LNG price instantly. The estimations of the three-year revenue, profit (or loss) after tax, and EPS for A IPP are NT$865 million, NT$700 million and NT$2.33 respectively. The result shows great influence to the business operation of IPP.
2. Simulation of power price adjustment lags behind LNG price for different period of time. Assuming the power price of the current month is not adjusted according to the price of LNG, the empirical results of the scenario analysis approach and cross relation analysis all show that adjustment lagging by two months has the most significant impact on EPS. Main reason is because the power price may not be adjusted on the first day of the monthly adjustment. Therefore, the impact to the profit will then all reflect on the next month when the power price is adjusted in the current month.
From the result of the research we know that the influence of the power price adjustment two months after the LNG price adjustment is the most significant to the financial performance of the IPP The study hopes to provide a direction of contract modification based on the floating price of LNG for IPP in future by proposing a reasonable method of calculating power sales profit as a basis so that the operational cost and revenue can be reflected at the same time. This is indeed an urgent task to the IPP.
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