| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣海洋大學 === 航運管理學系 === 95 === Abstract
Bulk shipping market is affected by uncertainity, so how to capture the market trend is important to chartering decision maker. This research is mainly based on Grey theory and exponential smoothing model to construct forecasting models of Baltic Supramax Index. Furthermore, this research uses the statistics data from Clarkson Research, the Baltic Exchange Freight index with Baltic Supramax Index to analyze supramax market and freight index trend, respectively. The most important outcomes of this research are listed below:
1. In connection with supramax market, the minor bulk cargo is the main cargo of supramax vessel. On the basis of the consideration of unit cost and economy of scale, the handysize vessel has the tendency of enlargement.
2. Construct the forecasting model of Baltic Supramax Index and find the possible trend with supramax market in different period. In general, it is apparent that the trend of the Baltic Supramax Index in the upcoming three seasons (from April. to Dec. 2007) would be at an upward development.
3. Concern with the chartering decision, the trend of supramax market will be upward development. For shipowner, the suggestion of this study is buying and holding the spot vessel or second hand vessel or charter in by time charter. In addition, if the shipowners hold the Contract of Affreightment he should subcharter this shipment. For charterers, they should sign the time charter contract or Contract of Affreightment as soon as possible.
The findings of this research will assit shipowner or charterer in making chartering decision and help chartering decision maker to know that possible Baltic supramax market trend.
Key words: Bulk shipping, Grey theory, minor bulk cargo, Baltic Supramax Index
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