Application of Grey Theory to Analyze the Characteristics of Rainfall

• Main Authors: Bao-Cheng Guo, 郭保成
• Other Authors: Chin-Yu Lee
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2007
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/65278024252593597293

碩士 === 國立屏東科技大學 === 畜產系所 === 95 === Rainfall is the natural resource that human keeps of life. It is also the important agriculture resource in Taiwan. Human depends on it more and more. However, a natural phenomenon is exist many uncertain factors. Therefore, rainfall don’t allowed to control by human easily. This research applies a series of Grey System Theory Method to analyze the south-west area of Taiwan. It analyzes the rainfall characteristics and the trend of the future in Pingtung especially. It refers to the water resource policy which to establish and perform in the future. This research is divides into three parts. The first part applies Class Ratio Method of Grey System Theory to supplement rainfall data. It compares with Interpolation Method and Normal Ratio Method. While station locates a mountain area, Class Ratio Method is more well than Interpolation Method and Normal Ratio Method. The second part applies Grey Relation Method to analyze rainfall factors in the south-west area of Taiwan. It related to the geographic and climatic condition. It isn't controlled by the degree of humidity factor completely. The results shown that wind velocity and elevation has higher relativity of rainfall in the south-west area. The third part applies Topological analysis and Grey Prediction Model GM（1,1）to forecast the variety of rainfall that 5 year in the future in Pingtung. The annual rainfall compares with the average annual rainfall will be reduced. The few rainfall condition of the plain area in the west will concentrates more, and the annual rainfall of the mountain area in the east will enlarges the margin.