An Analysis of the Impact of Taiwan High Speed Rail on Intercity Transportation Market and the Safety Evaluation

• Main Authors: Ching-Yu Shao, 邵靜瑜
• Other Authors: Yung-Hsiang Cheng
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/02863573927000409021

碩士 === 國立高雄第一科技大學 === 運籌管理所 === 95 === In the past few decades, the high speed rail system’s impact on the intercity transportation modes in Japan, Spain, German, French was very obvious. Taiwan High Speed Rail operated since Jan. 2007. According to the monthly report of Ministry of Transportation and Communication, during the trial running stage, the demand for the existing intercity transportation modes are changed drasmatically, especially the air transportation. Moreover, the safety of transportation is a major issue for passengers. However, the Taiwan High Speed Rail（THSR） has many safety concerns perceived by paseengers during the trail running stage, and it could decrease passengers’ intention to accept this transportation mode. Therefore, this study will adopt the Stated Preference method to estimate the utility function first and then use the Sensitivity Analysis to analyze the mode choice behavior of passengers when the Taiwan High Speed Rail or other operators changed their transportation services. And, this study also adopts the Contingent Valuation Method（CVM） to evaluate the travelers’ will to pay for the safety improvement of Taiwan High Speed Rail . The empirical results are as follows. Firstly, for the long-distance travel, 61.94% of air transportation, 51% of Taiwan Railway Administration（TRA）and 26.41% of motor transport will shift to Taiwan High Speed Rail. Secondly, for the short-distance travel, the market share of TRA and motor transportation will shift 55.77% and 45.35% to THSR individually. Thirdly, the sensitivity analysis result indicated that passengers are more sensitive to the price change. Therefore, the operators can attract more passengers by cutting price. Fourthly, through evaluating the willing to pay, the aviation passengers’ will to pay is the highest, and then are the passengers taking the bus and TRA. This empirical results provide some suggestion for the policy makers in the government or other transportation authority.