Using Generalized Exponential Distributions to Predict the Failure Times of Repairable Systems.

• Main Authors: Lee, Mi-Ho, 李密合
• Other Authors: 洪文良
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2007
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/20912864824827851770

碩士 === 國立新竹教育大學 === 應用數學系碩士班 === 95 === Abstract The purpose of this study is to predict future failure time of the repairable system after minimal repair and major overhauls. Usually, the effect of major overhaul of the repairable system is modeled by a proportional age reduction. Furthermore, we use the generalized exponential distribution to model failure process between two successive overhaul epochs. To predict future failure time of this system, we propose two approaches. One is maximum likelihood method and the other is Bayesian. Numerical results show that the Bayesian approach under some prior distributions performs better than the maximum likelihood estimate according to absolute error criterion. Keywords：repairable system; generalized exponential distribution；minimal repair；major overhauls.