| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 財務金融學系碩士在職專班 === 95 === Influenced by the non-performing loans of cash cards and credit cards, banks in Taiwan gradually moved their focus, in recent years, to the mortgage loans and construction loans which were deemed to be better secured. Considering the highly competitive financial market in the country and the high price in the real estate market which is being observed, bankers should think carefully about their lending strategies to avoid repetition of the same problem, which could make them victims in the market when facing an economic recovery.
It was found that, among the major financial institutions in Taiwan who currently provide construction loans, the credit policies were either relatively cursory or had long been out-of-date, hence no longer meeting the market requirement. In some cases the credit approval process has been overly dependent on human judgment, being short of objective assessment criteria to follow. The purpose of the research, therefore, is to provide a good reference to banks in their credit approval process, by consolidating information on the current banking practices and the experience of researchers in the area, supported by a summary of the relevant terms and conditions for construction loans from the banks.
In this research, we used the Logistic Regression Model for our empirical analysis to obtain a logistic regression equation for the risk assessment on the construction loan business. Through the partitioning method, we further studied the forecast accuracy ratio for each partitioned value after the establishment of the credit scoring model, so as to analyze on the expected default frequency (EDF) under different categorization. The purpose is to identify the significant financial variables and the relevant forecast model ratio for companies with the potential of financial crisis, which could be used as a reference for banks, relevant companies in the industry and investors in the process of lending, management or investment decision-making. In was found in our research that, among the logistic analysis model on financial ratio variables, four items have reached the significant level, which are, respectively, the “Operating Profit Ratio”, “TCRI Credit Risk Index”, “Ratio of Constructions in Process against Total Assets” and “Ratio of Finished Buildings/Constructions for Sale against Total Assets”. The “Best Fit” point was also identified to be at the probability bound of 0.40. Further, through the NPAR1WAY methodology, we found that there was significant difference in the default ratio between the “normal companies” and “companies with financial pressure” defined in this research. There was also significant difference in default ratio between TSEC and GTSE listed companies, and in terms of the TCRI risk scale and liability ratio. Finally, a comparison was made through the Chi-squared fit test and the results showed that the credit scoring model referred to in this study was more effective than the traditional scoring method for large companies.
In the research, we also studied the development process of the asset securitization business. Asset securitization provides not only an additional investment instrument for the investors, but also an additional channel for companies to raise funds. When conducting risk analysis, it is recommended that the construction companies should assess on basis of the company as a whole. The asset securitization process normally has a relatively clear and stable structure. In practice, the securitization of real estate under development has not yet been materialized in the local market. Under the situation, therefore, it is unlikely to become one of the fund-raising channels for the construction industry when developing real estates.
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