The Analysis of Air Cargo Demand from Industrial Perspective:A Case Study of High-Technical Industry in Southern Region of Taiwan

• Main Authors: Bo-Lun Lin, 林伯倫
• Other Authors: Yu-Sheng Chiang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2007
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/84140265942651646738

碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 都市計劃學系碩博士班 === 95 === In the past each related research which was proceed the forecast about the international Air Cargo demand in Taiwan, most of them didn’t refer to the industrial aspect; also, they ignored the goods traffic which was actually the derivative demand of economic activity behavior. The purpose of this study tries to establish an analytic procedure which finds out the demand of air freight goods by the aspect of industrial economy. The procedure and the research method concern two important perspectives: First of all, this study will precede the comprehensive forecast which aims to the industrial growth of inner region. The method we adopt is Shift-share Analysis Model, it can narrowly examine the effect of the industrial growth, which divides into the national growth effect, industrial mix effect , and regional competitive effect. In the hypothesis of immovable effect in regional competition, we can do the forecast by using the AREMOS Secondly, this study will analyze the distribution of good traffic between different freight transportation airports; then, we utilize the Probit-Regression Analysis to establish airport choice model, and the influence factors it includes are transportation time, the class number of times, the cost, the cargo value, the cargo density as well as variable and so on the cargo effectiveness for a period of time. Hence, we proceed the demonstration by using “the Report on 2001~2006 Industry, Commerce and Service Census Taiwan - Fukien area, R.O.C.” and ”Customs Data”, and try to compare the difference of freight data between now and 2006 later. From the compared result, the forecast data that this study did is much optimistic than the present value, and its error value is much lower than other researches’. Therefore, it is obviously that the forecast method of freight by utilizing the aspect of industrial production is much precisely than using Probit-Regression Analysis. In the end, through the result of sensitive analysis, we can realize that the reformation of flights and delivery time are the major key point to promote the operation condition and the exportable transportation value of Kaohsiung Airport.