An Empirical Study on Stepwise Regression,Reality Check and Superior Predictive Ability-Evidence from TAIEX

碩士 === 國立中興大學 === 應用數學系所 === 95 === The return is very complicated and hard to predict in the financial market. This article uses common technical analysis-momentum, trend line, relative strength index, moving average and some sentiment indicators -volatility index, put call ratio of open interest,...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Yu-Chia Lee, 李友嘉
Other Authors: 許英麟
Format: Others
Language:zh-TW
Published: 2007
Online Access:http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/40887508297817139846
Description
Summary:碩士 === 國立中興大學 === 應用數學系所 === 95 === The return is very complicated and hard to predict in the financial market. This article uses common technical analysis-momentum, trend line, relative strength index, moving average and some sentiment indicators -volatility index, put call ratio of open interest, put call ratio of volume to be variables of regression model. Moreover, we apply reality check (White, 2000), test for superior predictive ability (Hansen, 2005) and stepwise regression to select useful variables. We hope to find useful variables and provide more correct infromation in the financial markets. Sentiment indicators are useful in this article.