少子化趨勢對國民教育師資供需影響與對策之研究

• Main Author: 鍾德馨
• Other Authors: 秦夢群
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2007
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/43166460341190515259

碩士 === 國立政治大學 === 教育研究所 === 95 === The low birth rate--the influence and strategy of the supply and demand of teacher in compulsory education Abstract The purpose of this study was to analyze the policy of teacher education by the point view of population composition and probe into the state of teacher supply and demand, with its trend of development. The article analyze by percentage, cluster analysis, time series analysis, grey forecasting, and fuzzy Delphi method to realize the current situation, forecast and solving strategies of teacher supply and demand bring related solving strategies. Marjor findings include the following: 1.The trend of students in compulsory education was to affect by the low birth rate. Every county in the low birth rate was different, especially the most influence were Kaohsiung city, Taipei county, Keelung city, Taichung city, Chiayi city, and Tainan city. 2.The teacher supply and demand of different counties in elementary education were not the same, especially the most saturated membership of teachers were Taipei city, Kaohsiung city, Taipei county, Miaoli county, Taichung county, Changhua county, Nantou county, Chiayi county, Tainan county, Kaohsiung county, Pingtung county, Hualien county, Keelung city, and Tainan city. 3. The teacher supply and demand of different counties in middle education were disorderly by the low birth rate influence, but these counties’ teachers development trend were cut down, including Taipei city, Chiayi county, Nantou county, Yunlin county, Chiayi county, Pingtung county, and Tainan county. 4.The ARIMA model and grey forecasting GM(1,1) model to forecasting the supply and demand of teacher were good methods, especially the grey forecasting GM(1,1) model to forecasting degree of accuracy exceeds 99 percent. 5.Elementary education is forecasted reducing rough 5,703 teachers in 95-100 session. Besides Taoyuan county, Taitung county, and Hsinchu city have growth of teachers, the others’ teachers have obvious reducing, especially Nantou county, Keelung city, Taipei county, and Penghu county reduce teachers exceeding 10 percent. 6.The earlier stage of Middle education is forecasted increase rough 118 teachers in 95-100 session. Among countries belong to the growth of teachers are Taitung county, Hsinchu county, Chiayi city, Taoyuan county, and Penghu county. However, Among countries belong to the reducing of teachers are Yunlin county, Chiayi county, Taipei city, and Pingtung county, which reducing percentage over 10 percent. 7. To solving the imbalance of teacher supply and demand must be started in teachers’ retirement and evaluation reform, and teacher membership of organization reform. Based on the finding, several recommendations were made for the superior authorities, for the governments of education administration as well as for further research.