Retrospective or prospective voting?:the voting behavior in the 2005 Taipei magisttate election

• Main Authors: Ho, Chia Fen, 何佳芬
• Other Authors: 高永光
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2007
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/55840212821388307017

碩士 === 國立政治大學 === 行政管理碩士學程 === 95 === In this Study, we employ individual-level survey data collected by ‘Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study” in the 2005 Taipei Magistrate election to examine whether voters apply retrospective voting or prospective voting. We include variables such as personal well-being and national economics performance in the past ,candidate evaluation and expectations on future economic performance to see how these variables might affect their voting behavior. We demonstrate that, after controlling demographic variables and other political attitudes, when voters consider national economy is worse off, he/she voted against the incumbent party. However, voters give greater support to candidates of the incumbent party if he/she believes this candidate is competent to govern Taipei county. Additionally, party identification still exerts a powerful influence upon the individual vote decision. In the study, it is found that people decide their voting behavior is employ their rational calculations to examine sociotropic economic performance and candidate quality. Therefore, citizens are not fools, and the incumbent party has to realize the importance of governance and nominate qualified candidates to govern.