| Summary: | 碩士 === 銘傳大學 === 經濟學系碩士班 === 95 === Abstract
This paper forecasts subscribers and revenues of 3G and discusses about critical factors that affect the development of 3G industry by using system dynamic, Five Forces analysis and SWOT analysis as research approaches. The paper also discusses about that 3G industries will face a little threats, opportunities, strengths and weaknesses. These are mainly analysis and framework of the paper.
The paper establishes the model of 3G subscribers and the model of 3G revenue to forecast subscribers and revenues of 3G until 2015 in the future. The conclusion states that policies (including license expenses of 3G and mature time of 2G), 3G subscribers and data download usage are mainly critical factors that affect revenues of 3G operation firm. The forecast outcome states that there will be about 17,350 thousands of 3G subscribers in 2015. It also states that revenues of 3G operation firm will run up to NT $538 hundred millions in 2015. But the 3G operation firm will just start to make a profit in 2012 mainly because of expensive license expenses and construction costs. The development of 3G industry consequently is not so sanguine in the short time but it should be sanguine in the long time.
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