Forecasting Taiwan Economic Growth Rate by Multivariable Grey Forecasting Model

• Main Authors: Gang-cheng Chang, 張剛誠
• Other Authors: Chun-i Chen
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2007
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/12381614350136986067

碩士 === 義守大學 === 工業工程與管理學系碩士班 === 95 === The development of science and technology.Let numerous research fields to march toward diversification and rationality.And these can provide more information to other studies.Under this prerequisite,the scholars almost studied seriously by the past research,and tried to add more real influencing element continuously.Chinese scholar,Professor Deng, J. L.,proposed an idea about「the Grey System」in 1982.By studying continuously,the new research field「Grey Theory」is created.The characteristics is as the goal system under the indeterminate and incomplete environment,the possible development information for the system in the future still can be forecasted.So it could beused to draft the suitable measure in advance. For a country,「economy」represent a national’s lifeblood,is also the key factors of development in the future.And「Economic Growth Rate」is frequently to judge. Because it is able to display the development trend of that country in the past,present,future.So,「Forecasting Taiwan Economic Growth rate」is the research topic of this thesis.And,this research also uses grey relation analysis and grey model construction.To probe into the suitable prediction model for Taiwan’s economic growth rate. By above the research result,the research chooses ten the influence variables for the economic growth rate of Taiwan.By grey relation analysis,the results are not the same,so this results must be adjusted.This research can obtain the following order relation:fertileness(%), the proportion of domestic industrial structure-the industry(%), average each deposits rate(%), receive an education students count(a thousand people), the total numbers of Taiwan people(a thousand people),the deposit weighted average interest rate(%),the average each person''s income(U.S. dollar),the national income(a million yuan),the rate of unemployment(%), consumer price index(%)-the increasing rate every year.So,this result is used to construct the grey predicting model in according to above order.However, its result shows:As to economic growth rate of Taiwan,under these influence factors,this research verifies that the improvement of GM (1, N) model would be suitable to Taiwan economic growth rate.