Application of System Dynamics to Solve The Complex Problem – A Case Study in Flood Prevention

• Main Authors: Chien-Hung Chou, 周建宏
• Other Authors: chen chang hsien
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2007
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/20205597374168658283

碩士 === 逢甲大學 === 水利工程所 === 95 === Although the rivers have improved well in Taiwan, they can not avoid flood damage completely when the typhoons and the heavy rains happened. Hence it is possible that people will encounter great danger and lose their property. To explore some integrated measures, integrated Water-management can abate danger, avoid flood damages, protect ecological environment and promote sustainable use of natural resources. The purpose of this research is that System Dynamics show balancing loop and complex loop with Searching Goals, Limits to Growth, Fixes that Fail, Drifting Goals, Escalation and Success to the Successful, etc. Applying system dynamic to structure the integrated Water-management policy and analyze casual loop and trends. It’s base on a thinking of integrated Water-management. Integrated water-management evolves from simple model to complex model. And four archetypes which is Goal Seeking, Fixes that Fail, Limits to Growth and Drifting Goals are modified. Finally it establishes an archetype of the prevention of flood capability which relates to reflect an affair of integrated Water-management. The definition of questions and systematic description is the key to a decision of the range of complex model from the model established of this research. Moreover, a decision complex model structures the rationality of casual loop and document completeness makes model analysis accurate.