| Summary: | 碩士 === 中原大學 === 企業管理研究所 === 95 === As the opening of the communication industries, the environment had a rapid change. The 2G system are continually evolving into 3G. When building the 3G system, the vendors had to considerate about the potential that the consumers would take because of the huge fund. As to the system vendors, how to build a forecasting model is very important.
The research used multi-generation diffusion model and time series to forecast the subscribers. The data is taken from Telecommunications Carriers Association subscriber database in 2G PDC and 3G WCDMA subscribers during the period of 04/1997 to 05/2006. The analysis included three Japan communication company, NTTDoCoMo, KDDI, Vodafone and the total subscribers of the Japan Communication market. The analysis tool were SAS and SPSS.
The result indicate multi-generation with different model, the BASS(2004) model had the highest accuracy. And the Time Series had indicated that if the period of the forecasting is longer, the accuracy will fall obviously.
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