Building Investment Risk Assessment Analysis －Using Jhu-Bei CitiBank Tower as an Example－－Take north Citibank building of bamboo as an example－

• Main Authors: Hua-Chang Lin, 林華璋
• Other Authors: Lu-Ming Yao
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2007
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/01258861905583732911

碩士 === 中華大學 === 建築與都市計畫學系碩士班 === 95 === We understand very much about construction investment ecology in this industry. From careful assessment to development of the land, in order they can be divided into three big parts; design management, process management, and construction management. Each link is very detailed and important. Living in a pile of people, things, goods, and cash flow, the biggest challenges to the operator are dealing with unclear situations, short terms, and many uncertain factors while making decisions, not pursuing the best decision, but trying to avoid making bad decisions. Sometimes on the surface, business opportunities look good, but hidden underneath are the unexpected crisis. This is a high risk and high profit industry. There are opportunities everywhere, but also crisis everywhere. Business operation: (1) Recognize the nature of ones self. (2) Use own funds carefully. (3) Afford risk strength. When ability and ambition are in balance, the disaster will come. If there is no problem in the product’s region, and its positioning is also okay, then the failure won’t be too bad. The former CitiBank Tower leasing case was for operating a restaurant. The restaurant entrance faced a children’s park and a cultural center, and to the left was a river wall and county government executive building. The view was very broad and the environment was very beautiful. CitiBank liked it, but the original building had to be removed and rebuilt according to their demands for a lease. If removing and rebuilding the leased financial institution, long term rent, low risk variables and stable income can be expected. But demolition and reconstruction have many neighborhood safety issues, and the hidden worry of protest demonstrations. After demolition, if the tenant breaks the contract and doesn’t want to rent, the original beautiful restaurant has already been removed. How is it possible to consider the compensation issue? And, according to law, is it legal to set up a financial institution in a residential area? How does one apply for construction permits? Should the building be removed after approval? If during construction, the contract is broken, how should it be dealt with? What are the risks and profit? The risk analysis will be the crucial decision making process in this investment. In order to reduce investment risk, according to risk management’s basic concept using systematic and structured methods to ensure all the risk factors during the whole investment process are low, analyze the effects from each risk factor, and use a decision tree analysis method to review various stages of alternative programs’ expectation value and expectation effects to reach the best investment strategy. Through the risk analysis, the results of this case are: The investment return is $15,600,000 if the risk factors are not considered, if the risk factors are considered, the expectation value is $62,330,000. Therefore, this case could be a good investment.