Real Option Evaluation of Biotechnology Products-A Case Study on HPV Screening Biochip

• Main Authors: Chuan Yun Jung, 莊昀蓉
• Other Authors: Chueh-Yung Tsao
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2007
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/83672326439161704448

碩士 === 長庚大學 === 企業管理研究所 === 95 === The objective of this research is to measure the reasonable value of HPV screening biochip by using the real options approach. According to the interview with expertise who are familiar with the HPV screening biochip, this case has three different real options’ types, namely option to expand, option to defer, and option to choose, respectively. According to these three options’ types, we develop the pricing model which is suitable for this case. We explore the premiums of these three real options, and obtain the following results: 1. The value of the case is determined by the “sales volume”, which is in contrast to the traditional binomial option pricing model depending on the underlying asset’s price. 2. When Co. A, the main manufacture, has the option to expand, the value of this case is higher. 3. When having the option to defer, the value of this case is lower than the original value about 30%. 4. Compared with the traditional decision method and real options decision method, we find that decision makers might make the wrong decisions by the traditional decision method.