| Summary: | 碩士 === 元智大學 === 國際企業學系 === 94 === Firms always want to know the diffusion process of new product in market. If firms can get those kinds of information, they can realize the demand situation of market and do demand forecasting. Holding demand information can help firms get advantages from production schedule to marketing strategy. When one product sales will be affected by another one, the interaction effects of those products are extremely important. Especially firms under the situations of specialized cooperation and structure of industry chin, a product is not made by “only one” firm or manufacture. It is made by lots of firms or manufacturers. Therefore, it is meaningful to find out those interaction effects.
Expect those kinds of interaction effects, the adoption volumes between complementary or contingent product is another important issue. If the adoption rates exactly exist between products, it will concern the sales volume between them.
Our research based on multi-generation diffusion model, include co-diffusion concept in it. The result also shows that the forecasting performance of co-multi-generation diffusion model is better than multi-generation diffusion model. Besides, for sales volume, it based on the adoption rate to construct complementary or contingent sales models. And use those models to forecast market situations.
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