| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立陽明大學 === 衛生福利研究所 === 94 === It is important to plan physician manpower prospectively. Mental illness burden is a world wide problem. The prevalence and incidence of mental illness has also risen gradually in Taiwan. Thus, the aim of the study is to forcast and shape the supply and demand of psychiatrist manpower in 2007-2021 via Baker model, grey prediction model, life table model, demand model, and trend model.
Data resources of this study are the number of psychiatrists issued by Taiwan Medical Association, Nation Health Insurance claim data in 2002, population estimation published by Council for Economic Planning and Development, Executive Yuan, Taiwan. From supply side, with comparing the three models, life table model is more appropriate then Baker model and grey perdiction model. The suuply of psychiatrist is estimated at 1,790 for 2021. From demand side: the contributary factors are included more comprehensively in trend model, which is the most appropriate model to estimate physician demand. The demand of psychiatrist is estimated at 1,608 for 2021. Based on above models, the psychiatrist manpower will be exceeded demand after 2007. The amount of over supply is estimated at 182 physicians, and the ratio of supply psysician and demand psysician is 1.11 in 2021.
We suggest that DOH and Taiwanese Society of Psychiatry control the supply of psychiatrist manpower to avoid oversupply. Every estimating model has its advantages and disadvantages. Further researchers should consider the physicians’ age and mortality on the supply side, and consider the trend of population growth, disease pattern, and economic factors on the demand side to choose an optimal model.
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