| Summary: | 碩士 === 靜宜大學 === 會計學系研究所 === 94 === In the last few years, owing to the global economic recession, the enterprise encountered more probability of and financial crisis bankruptcy than before. It incurred a great credit risk for the loan policy of the banking. To adapt to the new Basel Capital Accord, which will be carried out at the end of 2006, the banking needs more effort to build up a set of fair, objective, clear, efficient and systematic standard to reduce the credit risk. This research is to study the possible factors for the enterprise’s occurrence of default events, and wishes to provide a stander for the operators of banks to evaulate the credit risk. We use 13 variables, including the finance ratios and the non- finance ratios, to uncores the possible factors that induce the default event. We adopt logistic regression model in our empirical study. When using the data from one year, two year, three year before the default event results show that the accuracy of the default prediction are 83.47%,74.80%,72.36% respectly. Among all independent variables, " the auditor opinion", "total asset turnover", "debt ratio", "return on total assets", "collateral ratio", "short-term loan ratio", all has the obvious influence to the occurrence probability of default events, predict the accuracy of the model with the year before establishment in the meantime the most high, show the reputation model of this research construction, is to the enterprise possibility default factor good of hermeneutic power.
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