A Study on Flood forecasting Model for the Lan-Yang Creek

• Main Authors: Hsing-Chung Chen, 陳信中
• Other Authors: Ming-Hsi Hsu
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2006
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/44770662681934490842

碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 生物環境系統工程學研究所 === 94 === The downstream Lan-Yang Creek is located in the low-lying Lan-Yang Plain, where the inundation disasters occur frequently in summers and falls because of the torrential rain. The high intensity precipitation combining with short river course usually results in flood inundation, which inflicts disastrous losses of life and economy. If the real-time forecast information, including the water stage at the significant locations and longitudinal profiles along a river is available before flooding, the damages would be effectively mitigated. The real-time forecasting can be performed by applying ANN model using river stage data at gauged station. But there is no river stage data for the forcasting using the ANN model other than the places with gauged station. The purpose of the study is to develop a flood forecasting model which integrates river stage prediction at gauged station with ANN model and flood routing model. The integrated model makes numerical calculations of water stage at the significant locations and longitudinal profiles along the river. The model parameter of the flood routing model is updated by using the optimization technique which minimized the differences of stages between the ANN model and river flood routing model. Two typhoon events were simulated to confirm the accuracy of the forecasting model. The present model can provide a satisfactory and reliable river stages forecasting for a short period following a storm.