The Study of Applying the Game Theory to the Military Decision Making—Giving the Gulf War an Example

• Main Authors: Chu-Sheng Hu, 胡筑生
• Other Authors: Ho-Mou Wu
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2006
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/94055764439596541177

碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 高階公共管理組 === 94 === Abstract The aim of the paper is to make a research on the U.S application of the Game Theory and most appropriate strategies of different phases during Desert Storm Operation. The model of the research based on Game Theory “guru” Schelling’s related military concepts, such as “prisoner dilemma”, “exit prisoner dilemma”, “deterrence and threat”, “bargaining”, “risk control”, and “preemptive strike” etc, which were verified by the Gulf War experience. During the Desert Storm Operation, the America manipulated all means to control information. The asymmetrical information resulted to the different interpretations of the expected benefits. For example, April Glaspie, the ambassador to Iraq at that time, whose misconducts and inappropriate remarks, the information of U.S assault from the sea, and Iraq Weapons of Mass Destruction Intelligence, which influenced the warfare significantly and profoundly. Therefore, how to precisely gather and evaluate information, and get rid of asymmetrical one are the most critical issues of military decision-making. In other words, the one who precisely controls information, the one who owns bigger probability of success. From the perspective, the miscalculated military decision making through the proper manipulation of asymmetrical information could effectively control the war broke out, enlargement, protraction, and termination. Employing and making asymmetrical information is an essential consideration of Game Theory. Form the point of view; the actions employed in Desert Storm Operation could be highly regarded as a successful model. The goals of Desert Storm Operation were to liberate Kuwait, force Iraq’s unconditional surrender, and punish Saddam Hussein, which seemed to be achieved out of the America’s view. The U.S and Iraq formed a vulnerable equilibrium post conflict. How to maintain the equilibrium depends on bilateral leaders’ wits. To win a war easy, but to get peace without a successful conflict termination, accommodation, and reconstruction strategy is impossible. The Versailles Treaty of WWI and Desert Storm Operation all faced the same tough issue. To understand the Game Theory, know the war, create the noblest art of war essence “to conquer the foe without resorting to the war”, and even further to prevent war, are really something welfares for human beings.