| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 自然資源與環境管理研究所 === 95 === A lot of countries focus on global warming issues with the fossil energy depletion and climate change, and the search for renewable energy sources becomes a matter of widespread attention. One of the efficient ways is taking fuel ethanol as a kind of alternative fuel. This study aims to assess the most feasible feedstock to produce fuel ethanol and estimate the costs of (1) importing fuel ethanol directly; (2) importing feedstock to produce fuel ethanol; (3) planting energy crops to produce fuel ethanol in Taiwan. And then analyses the possible influence of gasohol strategies (such as E3, E5, and E10) by constructing a system dynamics model of Taiwan’s motor gasoline demand.
The result shows that two feasible feedstock to produce fuel ethanol in Taiwan are sugarcane and sweet potato, in terms of fuel ethanol production per unit of land and energy ratio (energy output/energy input). The estimative costs of importing fuel ethanol directly and importing cane molasses to produce fuel ethanol are much lower.
According to the system dynamics model of Taiwan’s motor gasoline demand, this study designs three scenarios. Three scenarios are (1) Business as usual. (fuel efficiency and vehicle kilometers traveled are constant); (2) The new private passenger automobiles conform to the new fuel efficiency standard of energy label; (3) Scenario 2 pluses the vehicle kilometers traveled of private passenger automobile being 20％ off. The simulation results show as follow: improving fuel efficiency and reducing vehicle kilometers traveled can decrease the motor gasoline demand effectively. If E3 or E5 blend is implemented in Taiwan, the fuel ethanol demand will be satisfied by farmland recultivation. As to E10 blend, the production of recultivated farmland may not satisfy the fuel ethanol demand.
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