The Study of Return of Vector Stock Forecasting model-The Application of 3SLS and SSM

碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 企業管理學系 === 94 === This article uses the macroeconomic variables to establish forecasting models. The macroeconomic variables include interest rate, exchange rate, money supply, unemployed rate, price index, Taiwan stock index, foreign stock index. The research period is from Januar...

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Main Authors: Nanchi Tseng, 曾南溪
Other Authors: GOO, YEONG-JIA
Format: Others
Language:zh-TW
Published: 2006
Online Access:http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/65538626898728009897
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spelling ndltd-TW-094NTPU01210502015-10-13T10:37:50Z http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/65538626898728009897 The Study of Return of Vector Stock Forecasting model-The Application of 3SLS and SSM 類股報酬預測模型之應用-三階段最小平方法與狀態空間模型之研究 Nanchi Tseng 曾南溪 碩士 國立臺北大學 企業管理學系 94 This article uses the macroeconomic variables to establish forecasting models. The macroeconomic variables include interest rate, exchange rate, money supply, unemployed rate, price index, Taiwan stock index, foreign stock index. The research period is from January, 1995 to December, 2005. The steps of this research: 1.Transforming the raw data. 2. Using the stepwise regression to chose the variables which affect return of industrial stock. 3. Using the effective variables to establish the 3LS model. 4. Using different return of industrial stock variables to establish the SSM. 5. Comparing the forecasting performance of 3SLS and SSM. The empirical results can be summarized as follow: 1. Significant variable to forecast industrial stock index include CPI, USD-NTD exchange rate, S&P500 index. 2. To forecast Financial industry index and Steel industrial index: Because the variables which are used to forecast industrial stock index by 3SLS not only consists of return of industrial stock index but also macroeconomic variables, the forecasting performance of 3SLS is better than SSM. 3. To forecast Electronics industry index, Petrochemistry industrial index and Transportation industry index: Because SSM considers the interactive relationship of different industrial stock index, the forecasting performance of SSM is better than 3SLS. 4. Because the variables which are used to forecast industrial index by 3SLS not only consists of return of industrial index but also macroeconomic variables, the average forecasting performance of 3SLS is better than SSM. GOO, YEONG-JIA WU, RUEY-SHAN 古永嘉 吳瑞山 2006 學位論文 ; thesis 51 zh-TW
collection NDLTD
language zh-TW
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description 碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 企業管理學系 === 94 === This article uses the macroeconomic variables to establish forecasting models. The macroeconomic variables include interest rate, exchange rate, money supply, unemployed rate, price index, Taiwan stock index, foreign stock index. The research period is from January, 1995 to December, 2005. The steps of this research: 1.Transforming the raw data. 2. Using the stepwise regression to chose the variables which affect return of industrial stock. 3. Using the effective variables to establish the 3LS model. 4. Using different return of industrial stock variables to establish the SSM. 5. Comparing the forecasting performance of 3SLS and SSM. The empirical results can be summarized as follow: 1. Significant variable to forecast industrial stock index include CPI, USD-NTD exchange rate, S&P500 index. 2. To forecast Financial industry index and Steel industrial index: Because the variables which are used to forecast industrial stock index by 3SLS not only consists of return of industrial stock index but also macroeconomic variables, the forecasting performance of 3SLS is better than SSM. 3. To forecast Electronics industry index, Petrochemistry industrial index and Transportation industry index: Because SSM considers the interactive relationship of different industrial stock index, the forecasting performance of SSM is better than 3SLS. 4. Because the variables which are used to forecast industrial index by 3SLS not only consists of return of industrial index but also macroeconomic variables, the average forecasting performance of 3SLS is better than SSM.
author2 GOO, YEONG-JIA
author_facet GOO, YEONG-JIA
Nanchi Tseng
曾南溪
author Nanchi Tseng
曾南溪
spellingShingle Nanchi Tseng
曾南溪
The Study of Return of Vector Stock Forecasting model-The Application of 3SLS and SSM
author_sort Nanchi Tseng
title The Study of Return of Vector Stock Forecasting model-The Application of 3SLS and SSM
title_short The Study of Return of Vector Stock Forecasting model-The Application of 3SLS and SSM
title_full The Study of Return of Vector Stock Forecasting model-The Application of 3SLS and SSM
title_fullStr The Study of Return of Vector Stock Forecasting model-The Application of 3SLS and SSM
title_full_unstemmed The Study of Return of Vector Stock Forecasting model-The Application of 3SLS and SSM
title_sort study of return of vector stock forecasting model-the application of 3sls and ssm
publishDate 2006
url http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/65538626898728009897
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