DETERMINISTIC TREND OR STOCHASTIC TREND - EMPRICAL ANALYSIS OF PRACIFIC BASIN CONTRIES

碩士 === 國立中山大學 === 經濟學研究所 === 94 === In this paper, we assume structural changes occur in macroeconomic variables of eight countries in Asia Pacific Basin, including Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Taiwan. These variables are: current account, consumer price index, e...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Chai-chi Wu, 吳家齊
Other Authors: Jyh-lin Wu
Format: Others
Language:zh-TW
Published: 2006
Online Access:http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/09873915918263297537
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Summary:碩士 === 國立中山大學 === 經濟學研究所 === 94 === In this paper, we assume structural changes occur in macroeconomic variables of eight countries in Asia Pacific Basin, including Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Taiwan. These variables are: current account, consumer price index, exchange rate, industrial product index, money supply (M1 and M2), interest rate, and real gross domestic product. In addition to performing conventional unit root test, we also perform Lee and Strazicich (2003) minimum LM test for unit root with breaks. When comparing two test results, we find that the test conclusions are diffident. Empirical results show that by conventional unit roots test, almost all macroeconomic variables are non-stationary. By minimum LM test for unit root with breaks, however, we increase the possibility to reject the null hypothesis that macroeconomic variables are all non-stationary. In estimating the time points when structural changes occur, Oil crisis(1973、1979、1990), Financial liberalization and De-regulation, Plaza Accord(1985)and Asia financial crisis(1997) remain the primary time point. They determine weather the macroeconomic variables of Asia Pacific basin countries have structural changes.