The Optimal Strategy of Mergers and Acquisitions under Uncertainty

• Main Authors: Kuo-Jung Lee, 李國榮
• Other Authors: Szu-Lang Liao
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2006
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/97017541294093159838

博士 === 國立中山大學 === 財務管理學系研究所 === 94 === This paper applies a real option approach to analyze the optimal decisions of mergers, stock offers, and cash offers. We use the two-stage approach to investigate the optimal decisions of mergers and acquisitions. At the first stage, the merger company has to choose the target company to obtain the largest synergy, which comes from the increasing return to scale, improved performance, acquired R&D, and increased market power. At the second stage, the main work is to determine the takeover threshold (timing), exchange rate of stocks or bid premium under the three forms of mergers and acquisitions. We find that the increasing return to scale, improved performance, and increased market power will lower takeover threshold and speed up merger activity. Finally, the forms of mergers and acquisitions will affect the timing and the returns of the acquirer and acquiree. Cash offers will happen even later than mergers and stock offers. This thesis also constructs a model to study the multi-firms’ merger strategies and derives the multi-firms’ synergy value, timing and terms of merges. In addition, we study the effect of firms’ competitive intensity, market power, fixed cost, and demand shocks on the decisions of merges. We find that the increased competitive intensity, increased market power, higher fixed cost, and lower demand shocks will enhance the motives of merges and accelerate merger activities.