| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立高雄第一科技大學 === 運籌管理所 === 94 === Since many countries carried out open-sky policy, the air carrier market’s
competition pressure increased vigorously. However, in recent years, the international
air carriers faced numerous external uncertainties. Some of the airlines did not have
enough time to react to more complex resources allocation and management problems,
then faces the dilemma of management and loss in business, due to the over great
scale and worse capital structure.
This study combines the deterministic DEA and stochastic DEA model to examine
operation efficiency of major global air carriers during 2001- 2004 and forecast these
airlines’ future overall operation efficiency. The content of this study includes: (1)
Adopt deterministic DEA to examine operation of major global air carriers in the
initial stage of 21st century. (2) Compare airlines’ operation efficiency in America ,
Asia and Europe and explore the regional difference (3) Investigate the oil price
impact on air carrier performance in various regions (4) Adopt stochastic DEA to
forecast future operation efficiency of air passenger and freight of each airline under
various risk level.
The main results of this research are as follows：(1) In the uncertain period from
2001-2004, the aggregate efficiency and the scale efficiency of each airline differs
from region , but the technical efficiency of each airline does not differ very much
from region .The performance of airlines in Asia and Europe is good and the most of
them are already attained the suitable scale, but the performance of airlines in
America is not good, the main reason of its inefficiency is the scale inefficiency.
(2) The major results of the sensitive analysis of fuel cost indicate the ability to bear
fuel fluctuation of Asia’s and European’s airlines is greater than the airlines in
America. (3) At the air passenger transportation aspect, if under risk environment, the
Europe’s airlines have the best anticipant operation performance. (4) At the air freight
V
transportation aspect, if under risk environment, the Asia’s airlines have the best
anticipant operation performance.
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