| Summary: | 碩士 === 國防管理學院 === 國防決策科學研究所 === 94 === Based on Power Transition Theory, the relations between the U.S. and Asia can be divided in several important facets. India is coming into the stage of real growth, and its population will surpass China’s this century; therefore tension between the two countries is expected. The surpass, however, will not occur now, unless China’s economic development fails and India’s growth realizes. This will increase the cost of America’s intervention in Asia. Moreover, the interpretation of the U.S.-Japan Security Arrangement, ASEAN’s activities, and the relations between South and North Korea can all be seen as challenges to the U.S.
The possibility of China becoming a potential challenger is highly concerned by American academia, especially when China has tried to impede American interest lately by allying other countries in the region. Although China has not been obvious in organizing an anti-U.S. alliance, its actions, such as eagerness to establish the free trade area with ASEAN, will possibly inflict American interests in East Asia. Therefore, the development of US-China relations will be an important index of the power transition in Asia.
Taiwan stands at an awkward position in this U.S-China relation. During the Cold War, Taiwan survived as American ally. After the Cold War, China replaced the Soviet Union as the leader of the third world and main competitor to the U.S. Taiwan’s status has become even more threatened after Clinton defined China as a strategic partner and several agreements already signed between the two powers. Although Bush has redefined China as a “competitor”, Taiwan should readjust its military planning to prevent armed conflict and to seek for its survival.
Base on Power Transition theory, this paper focuses on mainstream of international interaction, China’s grand strategy, and impacts on military relations across the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan’s geopolitical and international status has been complicated because of changing relations across the Taiwan Strait. The military relation between Beijing and Taipei is paradoxical because of their asymmetric sizes, goals, and means. Power Transition provides possible trend between the hegemony, the U.S., and the challenger, China. However, it discusses little on the small country in the international hierarchy. The paper tries to bridge the gap by investigating military relation across the Taiwan Strait.
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