| Summary: | 碩士 === 國防管理學院 === 資源管理研究所 === 94 === As proper sales forecasting method will help a manager to do better decision in the competitive environment, especially when forecast the new product introduction sales volume. Should the sales volume be overestimated, there will be too many inventories. On the other hand, if the sales volume be underestimated, the company will lose their business opportunity.
As Taiwan is a famous mother board production country, the short life cycle of mother board causes the companies need a better sales forecasting method when introducing new mother board product though the related literature is scant. Thus, this research using the grey theory, which is suitable for the few sales data in new product introduction and effective exponential smoothing method as the new production sales forecasting method. Also, one dual-core main board company is chose as a case study.
The research results show that, grey forecasting with the principle of new messages left topological sub sequence and double exponential smoothing model are the best forecasting method in grade of predicted availability (G.P.A).
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