| Summary: | 博士 === 國立中央大學 === 土木工程研究所 === 94 === There are many stochastic factors that will affect the performance of the planning results in a passenger transportation system, such as passenger demands, vehicular travel times and flight delays. Past traditional deterministic models have been established based on the average values of factors such as input to obtain optimal solutions. However, such stochastic factors during the operational stage could have a significant influence on the planning results. An optimal plan might therefore lose its optimality when applied in real world operations where stochastic disturbances occur. In addition, most stochastic disturbance planning problems have been handled in two separate stages, the planning and the real-time stages. Most past research on these types of problems has focused on improving real-time adjustments to stochastic disturbances. In this research however we try to develop an integrated framework that combines both the planning and the simulated real-time stages together. The framework is expected to be useful for solving for better planning solutions to stochastic disturbance problems.
To evaluate how the proposed framework performs in practice, we perform applications to both gate assignment and inter-city bus scheduling problems. The dissertation includes three essays. In the first, we consider the stochastic characteristics of flight delays in actual operations; we integrate both the planning and the simulated real-time stages together to solve for gate assignment plans flexible enough to meet stochastic disturbances. In the second essay, we consider the bus scheduling planning problem with stochastic bus travel times. We develop an integrated framework that can systematically analyze planned bus scheduling and simulated real-time schedule adjustment problems in order to help the inter-city bus carriers plan suitable bus routes/schedules. The third essay considers the stochastic passenger demands, the variable market shares and the stochastic bus travel times of real world operations to develop a multi-stochastic bus scheduling model. Simulated real-time schedule adjustment is also incorporated into the framework. The result is to produce a better bus route/schedule plan. We performed these applications using real operational data, with reasonable simplifications. We used the C computer language to write the necessary programs, coupled with the CPLEX mathematical programming solver, to solve the problems. Finally, conclusions and suggestions are given.
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