Using LOGIT Model to Predict Default Probabilty of Construction Firm in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Chi-Luen Hung, 洪啟綸
• Other Authors: Yu-Lin Huang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2005
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/34811065172564385078

碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 土木工程系所 === 94 === In order to manage the risk of the construction industry and to reduce the loss producted by construction companies’ financial distress, a practical default risk model for financial bankrupcy must be established in terms of the management characteristics of the construction industry. In this research, 30 samples are taken from the construction companies in Taiwan. The analysis of statistical examination among 10 failure companies and 20 healthy companies is used to discriminate the significant of financial variables. In accordance with financial distress, the model of default Probability is build. Then, by using the time series analysis of ARIMA model, we estimate the long term default probability of the construction companies. The result of this research shows that this newly established model is able to predict the trends of the worsening financial conditions in the companies one year before the actual financial crisis takes place. In addition, the model could quantify the long term default risk of companies. It could be a reference for the risk estimation in construction companies in Taiwan.