| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 高階管理碩士在職專班 === 94 === The Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s announced the government’s function of macro control coordination on the April, 27th 2004, hope this powerful policy could hold back China’s over heated on economic growth. This also had an impact on the industry of steel, electro-aluminum, cement, and real estate in Taiwan. The demand of steel in China is 27.7% of the whole world, it’s the biggest amount of steel demand on earth, that’s why the China market could influence the steel market of the world, included Taiwan.
This research is going to discuss that how the government’s policy could effect the market economy, and we will take the China government’s function of macro control coordination as an example. The steel industry in Taiwan could learn how to deal with government’s interfere with policy by this as well.
In this research, we use CRU Asia steel index as a main variable to analysis the price of steel, we took the general economic variable of macro control coordination in China as a policy factor to analysis the influence factor. Then we used the sort of time data, such as unit root test, forecast error variance decomposition, and the impulse response function to analysis that what the China government’s function of macro control coordination to do with steel price, and their related connection.
Summarize as follow:
1、From the Impulse Response function analysis, we can tell the Asia steel price has a close relationship with the China’s economic variable of government’s function of macro control coordination.
2、In the error variance decomposition, we can say that the increase of Asia steel price by times, the differentiation is 100% by itself, after the government’s function of macro control coordination in 2004, the differentiation is all by China’s general economic variable.
3、We could tell that interfere with policy really does have it’s meaning and functions, so steel company should be careful to invest in China, better to notice the effect of government’s function of macro control coordination. About government’s interfere with policy, industrialists should considerate and evaluate it more seriously, and come with a prudential plan.
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