| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 地球科學系碩博士班 === 94 === Unevenly spatial and temporal distribution of annual precipitation has caused the difficulty of surface water application and management; namely groundwater becomes the major water resources for many purposes.
A complicate regional groundwater system is a partially understood and partially unknown Grey System. In a previous study, a good integrated model was developed for forecasting the variation of groundwater table due to the occurrence of daily precipitation in Pingtung Plain area.
This study, however, was proposed to utilize the statistics methods, Canonical Correlation analysis and Confirmatory Factor Analysis, to verify the influence of rainfall in a several-day period on the precipitation of the following several days. A comparison was made with the previous study.
According to the results of Canonical correlation Analysis, the correlation coefficients from the studied meteoric stations are more than 0.95, which evidently gives the indication that the groundwater table is greatly affected by the magnitude precipitation. In addition, due to the geological condition of the studied region, the influence of the precipitation will be responded on groundwater table changes of the day of raining or the following day.
According to the results of Confirmatory Factory Analysis, the groundwater table variation models are similar for aquifers belong to the upper and middle alluvial fan depositional area. For the lower portion of the alluvial fan depositional area, where the hydrogeological conditions are more complicate, the models are showing greater difference. It confirms the results that the degree of influence of precipitation on groundwater table variation is relatively greater at the upper alluvial fan depositional areas than those of the lower ones Combining both of the Grey system theory and the two statistical methods mentioned, a forecasting model for groundwater table variation affected by the precipitation were such that established.
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