| Summary: | 碩士 === 逢甲大學 === 水利工程所 === 94 === This study which is according to the Mechanism of mid-hill-slope collapsed and cooperates to a water-level arisen formula deduces that collapse’s coefficient formula. Therefore we can forecast the slope failure potential of watershed. Then we can collect an argument about the failure potential, and set up charts of an argument about the failure potential by GIS system. Also by analyzing the average of gradient and available areas in watershed to suppose that potential of ground in watershed. In addition to, calculating the percentage of collapsed areas by analyzing how much rock from slope collapsed flows into watercourse. Also defining when the debris flow happened by combining potential of ground and the percentage of collapsed areas.
In the model confirmation aspect, this study chooses five streams of debris flow potential and watershed to be researchable objects, and explores the relationship to the rock collapsed directly, the slope and the range of watershed on the sides of the streams. Also setting up the analytic mechanism of debris flow potential which comes of the slope failure potential of watershed and potential of ground by using GIS system. Furthermore, to cooperate the rainfall can get the differences of failure potential and debris flow potential in the watershed. After analytic events contrast with the collapsed position of field surveys, it reaches above 87.6% accurately near two hectometers at the sides of watercourses. However there is a bigger error as it is far away above the watercourse two hectometers. In addition to, we can know something by analysis process. It means that the higher dependability we get by calculating charts of arguments about the factor that failure potential needs, the higher value of the forecast we can receive.
The methods of this study can help some sharing systems to prevent setup of anti-accident system and land management as cooperating the rainfall forecast, correcting the system and using the analyses of failure potential and debris flow potential.
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