An Application of Monte Carlo Methods on Military Operations-Assessments of Ballistic Missile Attack on Airfields

• Main Authors: Horng-Di Liu, 劉鴻第
• Other Authors: none
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2006
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/74692390695536428257

碩士 === 逢甲大學 === 工業工程與系統管理學研究所 === 94 === Recently China has brought in vast international investment and commercial technology. With lower rate of human labor, China takes an advantage in commercial production and global marketing which makes main land China to create great economy growth. Definitely, huge amount of foreign exchange earnings provides firm support of their “military modernization”. Navy, Air power, and surface to surface missile are main infrastructure of their scheme. With long range, high speed, hard to be detected and intercepted, ballistic missiles are considered the most critical weapon to Taiwan and even the US. Without a debate, “Air superiority” still controls the battle of Taiwan straits. In order to dominate the war, our run ways and air defense facilities are the highest prior target to China. Therefore, careful assessment of the lethality of China’s ballistic missile and prevent it from destructiveness through our well preparation is one of the major tasks of our air defense department. How to model and estimate the lethality of ballistic missiles attacking apron is the main purpose of this report. Although RAND, arm forces analysis institution in the US, had done some research and established an analytical model on this subject. But, too many assumptions were made, such as shell craters shall not overlapped, impact region of ballistic missile is limited, which derived certain error of the results. This paper introduces Monte Carlo random number generator with normal distribution of shell impact points, actually simulates the effective destroy area of apron by accumulating the intersection area of craters and apron. Then, effective lethality comes from the ratio of destroy area and the area of apron. In order to validate our models, an analytical solution is also used in this paper as a comparison to prove the compliance of our results. The methods we developed for this research are valuable for other military operation research models used in combat effectiveness analysis. Besides that, the analysis results acquaint the Air Force head quarter with keen perspective to the lethality of ballistic missile and urge them to preplan schemes for the future. Finally, this research improves the accuracy of effectiveness estimation of ballistic missiles attacking apron. With the introduction of Monte Carlo method, the approach and logic of this research are very close to real condition. We successfully solve the restriction and unreasonable assumptions of RAND models that mentioned above and provide a new tool for the further analysis.