A Study of Financial Prediction in Model Taiwan Banking Industry

• Main Authors: Chun-Che Hsiung, 熊君哲
• Other Authors: Horng-Ghi Chen
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2006
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/18226436344095106154

碩士 === 朝陽科技大學 === 財務金融系碩士班 === 94 === The monthly data were collected from 35 banks in Taiwan from March 2000 to December 2004. We employ the factor analysis approach to evaluate the performance of 35 banks in Taiwan. There are five categories banks such as excellent, second excellent, ordinary, second problem and problem in order. This study intends to investigate the impact of the variables as financial ratios, corporate governance, and macroeconomics on the performance of banks by using the multinomial Logit model (MNLM). We find that there is less sensitive effect on the performance among the excellent banks, so the improvable space is very small for the government. The situation of secondarily problem and ordinary banks is the same as that of the excellent banks. It’s not proper for the government to support the problem banks facing bankruptcy. However, in the second excellent and second problem banks , the performance are more sensitive to the variables. We find that both debt ratio and over due accounts receivable ratio are key factors in the performance of banks through all of them. In corporate governance, the proportion of board’s shares in bank can significantly distinct normal from second excellent and second excellent from excellent. There is little evidence that the macroeconomic variables play an important role at the performance of banks.