| Summary: | 碩士 === 長榮大學 === 經營管理研究所(在職專班) === 94 === This research aims to utilize questionnaire analysis to search for the impact of “319 Shooting Event” on the 2004 Presidential Election and the relevant impact on the oppositional stands among the political parties as well as on the political turmoil. In addition, it attempts to help provide correct suggestions to the current political situation in Taiwan as an attempt to solve the competing confrontations among political parties and their supporters and to help our society resume to its rational process. Consequently, we can work together to protect our sovereignty and promote economy growth so the society will not fall into the dilemma of confrontation and hatred emerged out of different ideologies, nor will we deplete each other or confront each other and consequently collapse Taiwan.
The research format relies on Michigan School’s “Funnel of Causality,” a socio-psychological research tool, along with the decisive factors for the electoral ballot decision. Funnel of Causality is currently one of the most complete theoretical models to explain the electoral ballot behavior.
Funnel of Causality views individual ballot behavior as a funnel. First of all, all the factors such as the influence of parents’ behaviors, social backgrounds, identity of political party, etc. are first placed into the top of funnel, and later other factors such as the favor of individual characteristics of candidates, appreciation of campaign views, or the impact of accidents occurred during the campaign period are then squeezed through the middle pipe of the funnel. Finally the electoral ballot tendency emerges.
The tabulated statistics of returning questionnaires indicate that 510 out of 604 samples for the Chen-Lu ticket already decided to vote for this ticket, and the rest of 94 wanted to vote for the Lien-Soong ticket at the first place. Due to the 319 Shooting Event, they changed their mind and voted for the Chen-Lu ticket. Similarly, 503 out of 562 samples for the Lien-Soong ticket already decided to vote for this ticket, and the rest of 59 wanted to vote for the Chen-Lu ticket at the first place. Due to the 319 Shooting Event, they changed their mind and voted for the Lien-Soong ticket.
This study concludes that observation group members are subject to change their ballot for different candidate due to “319 Shooting Event.”
This research aims to continue investigating the ballot tendency for the 2008 presidential election to evaluate if it will be influenced by the impact of “319 Shooting Event.”
The research result indicates that most of the electorate still rationally choose candidates and don’t take political party into ballot consideration. Hence, each political party should work for endorsing candidates with satisfactory social qualifications as the future campaign candidates in order to win the victory.
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