The Influence of Market Trend and Risk on Disposition Effect: The Explanation of Rospect Theory

• Main Authors: Meng-Ting Chang, 張孟婷
• Other Authors: Hsin-Hui Yen
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2005
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/49484105213577028086

碩士 === 淡江大學 === 會計學系碩士班 === 93 === The archival researches discover that investors'' investment decision appears the disposition effect, namely investors tend to sell winning stocks too early and ride losing stocks too long. However, the results of archival studies are presented in aggregate market level, not directly testing the decision of the personal aspect, and confounding variables cannot be totally controlled. Experiment Ⅰis a 2 (hold winners, hold losers) by 2 (bull market, bear market) by 2 (risk seeking, risk averse) between-subjects design, to explore the disposition effect, and to analyze the influence of the market trend (bull or bear market) and the personal risk attitude (risk seeking or risk averse) on the disposition effect. The subjects of the experiment are 345 security staff who have investment experience, from Taipei and Kaouhsiung, and 452 undergraduate students from college of business and management. The main results of this study support the robustness of the disposition effect, not only for the different market trend conditions, but also for the different risk attitudes. Furthermore, when security staff and students adopt portfolio, they will not present significant disposition effect. In addition, this research also partly supports prospect theory to explain the psychological course which forms disposition effect. Experiment Ⅱ examine whether robustness of disposition effect is perhaps because of investors’ own partialities. Subjects are 154 security staff, come from on-career training that Taipei and Kaohsiung securities association holds separately and 78 undergraduate students from college of business and management. The finding indicates investors'' disposition effect really a conscious partiality behavior.