| Summary: | 碩士 === 東吳大學 === 政治學系 === 93 === With the development of democratic society, public opinion poll becomes increasingly important. In multitudinous polls, the poll of evaluation of presidential performance (presidential approval) is always the subject of the most popular ones. Therefore, we want to use the evaluation of President Chen Shuibian in during his first term (2000-2004) as an example, to discuss the influencing factors of the evaluation of presidential performance.
As to the research method, we use “pooled time series analysis”, a method that enables us to simultaneously discuss the macro elements and the micro elements of the evaluation about the presidential performance by combining aggregate data (time, economy and event) with individual data (party identification and ethic group). Basically, this method could help our comprehensive understanding about the factors of evaluation which are related to presidential performance.
The analysis shows that time, economy, event, party identification and ethic group are the factors of evaluation influencing presidential performance:
1.As time goes by, the evaluation of presidential performance will decline.
2.The evaluation of presidential performance will ascend under good economic conditions.
3.When positive event occurs, the evaluation of presidential performance will ascend.
4.When people’s party identification belongs to president’s party or president’s party coalition, he or she will give a higher presidential approval rating.
5.In contrast with Bensheng (Minnan and Hakka), Waisheng often disapproves of presidential performance.
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